Monthly Archives: May 2011

Composites, Economy & Lifestyle – Market Dynamics at Play

Hello everyone,

I commenced writing this post on May 21 branded as Judgement Day that predicted the end of the world. The reason being I was curious to see whether it would happen; in which case, this post would have remained unread. A CNBC News columnist stated that writers came down heavily on the prediction “with the fervour of Disney lawyers quashing a Mickey Mouse painting at a daycare center”.  A fair sprinkling of people world over, however seem to attach greater importance to Apocalypse 2012… more precisely December 21, as it is tied to a real astronomical event – the earth and sun will be roughly lined up with the center of the Milky Way galaxy.

I am sure there are numerous agnostics who would scoff at such prophecies. Why stir the pot?

AEROSPACE AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Composites professionals in the aerospace sector would have been overjoyed to read a Bloomberg News report that Airbus aims to begin assembling the first A350 by end 2011 in France. Imagine flying in an airplane that has 50% composites by weight and also offers 20% operational savings over traditional aluminum models. Wing components, fuselage, access panels,ducting and overhead lockers are some of the  parts that form the slew of composite products which would be featured in the aircraft. No doubt, Boeing‘s technology for the Dreamliner was revolutionary and paved the way for extensive use of composites in aircraft structures.

For frequent flyers and  airlines alike, the stage is set for more comfortable and luxurious flying, if one were to go by the total makeover of cabin ambience imminent in the new generation airplanes.

At the recently concluded ACMA‘s Construction, Corrosion & Infrastructure Conference [CCI], one of the hot topics was infrastructure rehabilitation through use of composites. Interesting facts emerged such as composites requiring less than 90 days to rehabilitate a one-mile long bridge and that too at 15-20 % less cost. Further 90 % of concrete repair use carbon fiber composite [CFRP] with aramid and glass fiber being lesser options.  Glass fiber composites’ [GFRP] susceptibility to creep failure is a major drawback. North America’s preference to use fabrics instead of laminates for rehabilitation stems from the logical advantage of the former being more flexible and therefore easier to manoeuver round columns and beams.

RENEWABLE SOLUTIONS

When it comes to renewable energy, the discussions are endless as also the multifarious options in reducing dependence on fossil fuels and reduction of carbon footprint. Earlier this month, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which met in Abu Dhabi made an ambitious forecast that 77% of the global energy sources in 2050 would be from renewables [wind power, solar power, biomass, geothermal, ocean energy & others], resulting in a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and aided by cheaper technology for renewable energies.

Compare that with 13% in 2008 !  If that’s not progress with relentless pursuit, what is ?

A central Indiana city bus system is turning to wind power in hopes of cutting its electrical costs and reducing its environmental footprint, by installing three turbines each capable of generating up to 100KW of rated power and saving the bus system up to $40K in electricity costs and generating up to $250K in revenue from selling tax credits. Audi, in fact plans to use wind power as a source of clean energy for its upcoming electric and natural gas vehicles.

In situations that require seeking solutions against all odds or with definite intentions, the mind brooks no limits.

PIPES, PRICES and MORE

Polypropylene prices are at an all-time high in North America and are susceptible to supply disruptions for the next few years. For the third time this year, there has been a price increase totaling 37 cents/lb since January 1, arising mainly from shortage of propylene feedstock. This could negatively impact the D-LFT/LFRT and short fiber reinforced thermoplastics market with softening of demand, especially when the automotive sector is showing signs of revival.

The market for coated pipes is set to keep growing as applications in energy and water supply continue to increase. The highest demand for coatings is from Asia (23 %) followed by Europe at 19% and NAFTA/CIS States at 17%. Concrete at 42 % and external anti-corrosion at 38% are the highest value sectors. There is  need for a newly developing market for pipelines [Pipe &Profile] in carbon capture and storage. The International Energy Agency predicts the need for 43,000 kms by 2030 for 1.44GT of carbon dioxide capture per annum.

One can already see a beeline of thermoplastic and composite pipe producers hopeful of tapping this emerging application.

The Eurozone’s economic growth accelerated in Q1 with the economy of 17 countries that use the euro growing at 0.8%. Germany alone reported 1.5 % growth, with the U.K. reporting 0.5%. While the dollar had one of its strongest weeks last week, pushing the euro to its lowest since last March, the strength is seen by many as short-lived. A correlation is also being built between the yuan and euro which, at times, have moved in tandem in recent years per a CNBC article. Many economists are factoring a 5% appreciation of the yuan this year (or over the next few years) which could cause the dollar to slide anywhere between 20-30% on indices based on baskets of currencies.

A stronger yuan could land a knock-out punch on trade competitors and partners in Asia and large emerging markets. Game on?

”PAIN AT THE PUMP”

For Americans, the “pain at the pump ” continues with oil prices well above the $ 100 mark and gas prices soaring to almost $4/gallon. It is however good news for composites in a convoluted way.  An April poll shows general consensus that the U.S. Government should require car companies to boost fuel economy. Increases that could double the current 30mpg are being considered by the Environmental Protection & the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, amongst other bodies.

Composite raw material producers (glass fiber, carbon fiber,  thermoplastic & thermosetting resins) and processors could possibly be laughing all the way to the bank in the coming 18 months on more extensive use in automotive applications? A distinct possibility, it appears!

AND NOW…BEER!

Beer has always been considered a man’s drink. In a recent Gallup poll via CNBC on U.S. drinking habits, only 27% of women named beer as their preferred drink. Wine was the top choice at 48%. As for men, beer was the top drink (54%). Considering the fact that only 6% women listed beer as their top drink in 2009 , the recent stats is a sea change! Danish-base brewer Carlsberg is looking to speed up the trend by offering a gender-neutral beer with a balanced taste…..a real alternate to white wine and champagne. The beer is set to be released in Denmark later this year and the rest of Europe and part of Asia in 2012.

Americans would have to wait for this beer – it is not scheduled to come to the U.S. anytime soon!  A revolution in liquor taste & guzzling – why not?

Till the next post,

Cheers,

S. Sundaram
Email: SS@essjaycomposites.com
Twitter: @essjaycomposite
Website : www.essjaycomposites.com

Perseverance + Resilience: A Composites Recipe for Success

Hello everyone,

I begin this post by drawing reference to a recent Bloomberg Businessweek column that  stated “world markets are frothing like shaken champagne.” Amongst other things, it adds that price increases, (notably commodities) being witnessed are unsupported by economic fundamentals. The columnist opines that current bubbles need to be deflated before they get dangerously large. Late last week, BBC News quoted the Asian Development Bank (ADB) that soaring food and fuel prices are threatening to derail growth in Asian economies with a possible reduction in economic growth in the region by up to 1.5% this year.

Following the meeting of finance ministers in Washington on April 15, a G20 communique in The Telegraph sounded optimistic, stating that the global recovery was broadening and becoming more sustained with increasingly robust private demand growth. In the same breath, it stated that downside risks remain and that staying vigilant was the watchword.

In a nutshell; the bottom line for the world at large, is cautious optimism.

TIDBITS: COPPER, PLATINUM, GLASS FIBER, ACMA

Copper is now being dubbed the new gold. It is being considered more lucrative and is forecast to hover around record prices for the next few years – for the simple reason that there isn’t enough supply in the world to feed Asia’s demand. As far as platinum is concerned, a recent Bloomberg Businessweek forecast predicts the precious metal breaching the $2000 mark by December 31, 2011. Overall, demand is expanding 9% – almost twice the increase in supply. Companies are reportedly digging even deeper to maintain production.

It is hoped that rising platinum and copper costs do not deter glass fiber producers who have ambitious plans to ramp up production globally, either through expansion or new ventures.

In its April meeting, the FRP Rebar Manufacturers Council of the American Composites Manufacturers Association (ACMA) discussed the need to establish a strategic new direction for the FRP concrete market with focus on end-user education, legislation and industry certification. The newly constituted Thermoset Molders Committee, part of the Composites Growth Initiative (CGI) of ACMA, plans to grow their markets by focusing on marketing, codes, standards and political advocacy. One of the reasons the American Composites industry remains in the forefront on technological aspects is the continued focus on industry standards and bold practical initiatives.

CARBON IS TRENDY

Whilst the use of glass and aramid fibers in automotive tires have been tested and proven, the latest successful development is the use of Teijin‘s aramid fiber in ultra high performance tire for the super sports car segment. Test trials report that the tire remains at its most ideal shape even at extreme high speeds, preserving stability and displaying resistance to high temperature. With carbon fibers already being used extensively in the sports car segment, use of tires with aramid fiber would be the ultimate dream machine for all racing enthusiasts.

What makes this most interesting is the importance attached to safety… carbon fibers for the body and aramid for tires. Exciting times ahead for sure.

While this post is not a carbon fiber “special”, I do like to cite reference to a column in the Gamers Hub  that speculates possibility of future iPads, iPhones and Macbooks being encased in CFRP, displacing the current aluminum and stainless steel casings.

When it comes to novelty and innovation, Apple has few peers. No two opinions on this one!

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

Global demand for polyolefins (PE, PP) will continue to increase 5% per annum 2011-2014,  but the world’s balance will increasingly shift from North America and Europe to Asia and the Middle East [Plastics News]. DOW‘s recent announcement that it plans to expand polyethylene feedstock plants in the U.S. using natural gas feedstock is a pointer towards America’s growing tendency to move away from fossil fuel (oil) and lean more on domestic (natural gas) natural resources. Per CNBC and the New York Times, Washington is increasingly giving natural gas a warm embrace, in spite of the fact that the heated debate rages on the environmental effects of shale derived natural gas. When gasoline costs exceed that of bottled water (as of now), the killer combo of high gas and food prices is at a key tipping point.

There is logic to the U.S. approach of veering away from  excessive dependence on oil imports… in much the same manner as the Middle East is finding alternate ways (other than oil exports) of propping up it’s economy.

Plan B is always a necessity in all spheres of life – none can debate that it is a must!

In a bid to make its operations carbon neutral by 2012, work has commenced on the installation of two wind turbines (expected to save 300Tonnes of carbon emissions each year) at East Midlands airport in the U.K. When completed, they will generate 5% of the site’s electricity.

 Commitment to its intentions on carbon footprint reduction? You bet!

After the Fukushima disaster, there has been endless debate on nuclear vs. renewables. In an interesting feature in CleanTechnica, it has been pointed out that in the U.S., even though nuclear and wind technologies produced considerable amounts of energy in their first 15 years (2.6 billion KWh for nuclear vs. 1.9 billion KWh for wind), the subsidy to nuclear outweighed that to wind by a factor of 40 ($ 39.4 billion vs. $900 million). The tailpiece comment was “imagine if wind was subsidized as much as nuclear”!

The fact remains that nuclear is needed to provide baseload power for renewables. Yet……

AUTOMOTIVES AS A PARTING NOTE

While we all recognize that the driving force on composites popularity in automotive applications (for decades) has been “parts consolidation” (compared to metals), the crowning glory is the recent award by the U.S. Patents Office for a composite automotive floor pan to the United States Council for Automotive Research (USCAR) that replaces up to 17 steel parts and sheds up to 25 lbs for a typical passenger car. USCAR is a collaborative automotive technology organization of GM, Chrysler and Ford Motors.

A watershed in composites innovation for automotive applications? It just might be so.

I could not resist mention of a screaming headline in Yahoo Finance on April 26… IMF‘s prediction that the age of America will end in 2016 with China  all set  to eclipse the U.S. For Americans, the psychological ramifications are one too many. Will the takeover at the helm be so swift? Recall the earlier prediction was for this to happen around 2025 !

Let’s wait and see. Life should move on as we live for the present, which itself is fraught with uncertainty and surprises at every turn.

Till the next post… keep smiling and hoping for the best.

Cheers,

S. Sundaram
EmailSS@essjaycomposites.com
Twitter@essjaycomposite
Website : www.essjaycomposites.com